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"What makes U think the Persians and Arabs are reasonable and will act it their own best Oil interest. ..."
They are quite "reasonable" when the issue is their selfish national security interest. Oil is not trumpable in their world, even though it isn't their sole value. Their elites are Western educated and trained, they appreciate the predicament they are in. Only a superpower can get away with deluding itself - and not for long. For our client Arab states (throw in Egypt & the Emirates), sure, they'd prefer Iran to be quiescent - they would also be thrilled to see the US acting like a Great Power ought (walk softly w/ big stick), perhaps work the Palestinian Issue via a diplomatic track (what a concept!). Their biggest concern is chain-reaction conflict triggered by US behavior (or lack thereof). Their systems are highly sensitive to instability. In an ironic way, the domino theory may have found a home.
As to Iranian hegemony, their power is more potential than actual, their leadership is flailing (visiting Daniel Ortega - now THAT's an impressive move) and lacks broad domestic support - the reign of mullahs may be coming to an end - our threats may serve more to prop them up than anything. Meanwhile, their nuclear neighbors; China, India, Pakistan & Russia, if properly worked, are our natural allies in countering bad behavior, but we prefer a unilateral blowhard strategy.
Btw, the CIA is not particularly dogmatic - unless you consider careerism a dogma. Yes, recent political appointees have been ideological (consider the Appointer), and yes, they became a moribund Cold War-centric bureaucracy, but change is always tough. Also, there is a tremendous amount of high quality scholarship & analysis in the Intel community. The problem is having reliable, non-dogmatic Leadership that can listen and won't punish the messenger. We ain't got that.
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