jvreed,
I went throught the same drill as you are about 6 years ago. I currently have 18+ years in govt service (decided to stay) and am glad I did. At the time I was making 95k and could have gone to the private sector for 115k (was made an offer). In the end it boiled down to the fact I really, really like my job. Maybe if the $ was greater I would have jumped at it. I can't say for sure though as I am a very conservative person.
In hindsight it was a good thing I didn't make the change as the company went through a large downsizing and I would have surely been one of the first to be let go. Plus, I have moved up fairly quickly so I doubt the difference in base salary would be very different at this point. However, the opportunity in bonus is much greater in industry (not sure about your particular situation).
As far as the "pension" (I assume you are FERS), I am not a pessimistic as PoP...I think it will be there, social security is a different matter though.
This is what I am working on...lots of fun!
Good luck.
Wayne C.