[jyl]

Some random thoughts I'm having on the candidates.

How long can you play the same old schtick? Guiliani's blowing the same "9/11" horn that Bush has been playing for 6 years. Voters eventually get tired of the same old schtick. Maybe that well has been sucked dry.

How much do looks matter? Which Dem would Madison Avenue pick for a TV ad campaign? Hillary is an older woman, not-model-beautiful. Obama is black. What about John Edwards? White, man, good-looking, youthful - hmm, we can sell soap with that.

Can you peak too soon? The curse of the front-runner. Everyone shoots at you. The media builds you up, then tears you down. Voters get bored.

How nasty do you want to get? Dem and Rep groups are gathering dirt and story-boarding attack ads right now. Wouldn't you like to be the guy assigned to Guiliani? Serial divorcer, corrupt protegees, loves gays, advocates abortion, etc.

No second chances. Americans have short attention spans and we scorn failure. You either make President on your first serious try, or you don't ever make it. Kerry doesn't get a second chance. Neither will Gore.

The Toxic President. The country is turning on Bush. Look at PPOT - not a lot of GW fans speaking up anymore. Any association with Bush is going to be toxic. So long Jeb.