[jyl]

I wish I had that much $$$, Hugh.

Basically:
- I'm finding attractive valuations again, in the sectors I look at (consumer and tech)
- Don't think fundamental outlook changed in past 2 weeks
- Compare to May 06, then GDP was 5%+, companies were blowing out estimates, fundamentals were great, business inventories low, retail sales gro strong, forward earnings growth estimate was >15%, while now GDP is 2%, companies have been missing numbers, fundtls are weak, biz invtry high, retail sales is zero ex-inflation, fwd EPS gro 10% and falling - but none of this is new, we knew it all several months ago
- I expect GDP gro zero% in 1H07, have expected that for appx 1 yr, and think recession (GDP gro <0%) in 2007 is 50% chance
- I believe stock market is anticipatory and bottoms before economic fundtls bottom, so time to buy is when fundtls weak and getting worse
- Wild card is financial accident, e.g. big hedge fund or banks caught on wrong side of subprime, I don't have any way to predict that
- I'm still housing market bear, think many financially stressed families will lose their homes and many residential construction workers will lose their jobs, but what % of consumer spending did those households represent anyway, for rest of consumer I think the MEW spigot will be shut off but I think that's already largely happened. I still expect to lose $$$ on my house in the next 2-3 years.
- I also think employment rate will deteriorate, but consider that a lagging indicator
- Main thing I'm watching is inflation, right now don't think Fed in position to cut rates, not with core inflation >2% and unit labor cost +6%, so don't have that catalyst to look forward to in near-term - maybe by 2H07

Interested in other views and data points. Some of you watch this stuff a lot more closely than I do.

Caveat - only my personal opinion, which could change at any time, and I think for most individual investors trying to time the market is a bad idea.