I agree with your first points.
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I believe stock market is anticipatory and bottoms before economic fundtls bottom, so time to buy is when fundtls weak and getting worse
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What bottom? I suppose you could argue there is no bottom in a soft landing.
I think it's too early to know the full economic effect of the sour housing market. A lot of new jobs and wealth were created in the last boom cycle. What happens to GDP growth and unemployment when we lose the housing boost?
I'd give up my bear costume if:
1) I saw declining consumer and government deficits, as opposed to seeing the lower Fed rates.
2) I saw the economy shift towards producing goods and services instead of trading trinkets/McMansions back and forth to each other.
It's easy for me to be bearish on the stock market, because I do better in real estate. Regardless, there's nothing wrong with diversification.