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Originally posted by LubeMaster77
Oil reserves are primarily a measure of geological risk - of the probability of oil existing and being producible under current economic conditions using current technology. The three categories of reserves generally used are proven, probable, and possible reserves.
Proven reserves - defined as oil and gas "Reasonably Certain" to be producible using current technology at current prices, with current commercial terms and government consent- also known in the industry as 1P. Some Industry specialists refer to this as P90 - i.e having a 90% certainty of being produced.
Probable reserves - defined as oil and gas "Reasonably Probable" of being produced using current or likely technology at current prices, with current commercial terms and government consent - Some Industry specialists refer to this as P50 - i.e having a 50% certainty of being produced. - This is also known in the industry as 2P or Proven plus probable.
Possible reserves - i.e "having a chance of being developed under favourable circumstances" - Some industry specialists refer to this as P10 - i.e having a 10% certainty of being produced. - This is also known in the industry as 3P or Proven plus probable plus possible.
The whole thing is a numbers game driven by speculation and margins. There are billions to be made and countries to control and for what it is worth we will not run out of oil for another 2000 years at the earliest.
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As a scientist at a DOE laboratory I have followed this debate for years, and while you are correct we should be very concerned about the short term outlook. A better number is oil in place, of which there are 6 trillion barrels. We have produced 1.1 trillion so far, and may produce 2 trillion total if the general trend of 30% recovery continues. Running out (i.e. how much we have) is not the same as hitting maximum production (i.e. how fast we can pump). The lower 48 hit peak oil in 1971 and is still producing, but we must import to make up for the loss plus the growth. A good analogy is the world has never run out of food, yet plenty of people starve.
Care to comment on worldwide production for the last two years? Despite the highest sustained price in history, worldwide production is flat. Check
www.eia.doe.gov for stats and see for yourself. We could be within a decade of hitting the peak. Maybe sooner.
The GAO just released a report on this subject last month. Go to
www.gao.gov (
http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07283.pdf) to find it. While you're at it, google the Hirsch report. The USGS also issued a report in 2001, but it is wildly optimistic to the point where even congress doesn't believe it. BTW the USGS predicted prior to 1971 that the lower 48 would not peak until 2000.
Speaking of congress, google representative Roscoe Bartlett to see what he thinks about this issue. You might be surprised.
Bottom line, worldwide oil production will peak, and nothing can change that. There is evidence that this event has already started, but it won't be obvious until we're well past peak. Higher prices will inflate reserves but again, it's not how much we have, it's how fast we can pump. The biggest fields, which were developed first, pump the easiest. The fields which are developed last are more difficult to pump. Plus they are smaller.
For anyone who is truly interested in the facts, I would suggest visiting
www.theoildrum.com for starters, as well as reading the above referenced reports.
Also, take a look at the most recent committee report on science and see where your federal tax research dollars are going. The motivation behind the current ethanol craze goes way beyond global warming. Finally consider this: Why would a man from an oil family get in front of the country and propose alternatives to oil? Bush has done this in every one of his SOTU addresses. Why does BP advertise Beyond Petroleum? Why does Chevron want you to join them? Why has Hugo Chavez gotten mouthy? Why are we spending billions to develop Canadian tar sands if there is so much more oil available elsewhere (at a capital cost of $500,000 per bpd)? Not to mention that tar sand upgrading is a CO2 nightmare.
Why are we so excited about a test well drilled through a mile of ocean and 5 more miles of rock (Jack 2)? Isn't there easier oil elsewhere?
And no, the world is not going to end over this.