[masraum]

Originally posted by PBH
You sure? This is a old one, the answer is not obvious....but I think you are wrong. I first read it in Carolyn Vosavant (sp?) about 20 years ago.



Let me explain what happened on Let's Make a Deal. The contestant would choose one of three curtains. One would contain a very valuable prize and the other two smaller prizes. For the sake of argument let's say behind one curtain was a car and behind the other two a goat. Then Monty would always, I repeat ALWAYS, open up one of the two unchosen curtains to reveal a goat. After hundreds of shows this would imply that Monty Hall (the host) knew where the car was and deliberately opened a curtain that revealed a goat. Obviously when the player chose his curtain the probability it held the car was 1/3 and the probability one of the two unchosen curtains held the car was 2/3. Monty is then predestined to open an unchosen curtain containing a goat. Predestined is the key word here. Because Monty can not open the player's curtain at this stage the probability of the player's curtain reveals the car stays at 1/3. The probability an unchosen curtain reveales the car remains at 2/3, however it is now all on one curtain. So after a goat is revelead the probability the player's curtain has the car is 1/3 and the probability the other unopened curtain has the car is 2/3, making switching a wise choise.

That answer makes sense, but only because we are told that the host knows which curtain has the answer.