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Un Chien Andalusia
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Bay Area, SF, CA
Posts: 2,679
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From the outset the probability of picking the car is 50%. The reason for this is the predetermined nature of the problem.
You see it is a FACT that one door will be opened to reveal a goat and you know that from the outset so situation only has two possible outcomes.
Outcome 1 - The contestants picks a goat
Outcome 2 - The contestant picks a car
Despite there being two goats and one car at the start there is still a 50% chance that the contestant will pick a car.
PREDETERMINED is the key.
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2002 996 Carrera - Seal Grey (Daily Driver / Track Car)
1964 Morris Mini - Former Finnish Rally Car
1987 911 Carrera Coupe - Carmine Red - SOLD :-(
1998 986 Boxster - Black - SOLD
1984 944 - Red - SOLD
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