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I think it's most likely the video card too. Either it's not making good contact in the slot/motherboard or it may be on its way out.
Pull the card and use a new pencil eraser to polish the contact strips. Slide it into and out of the slot in the motherboard a half dozen times. Make sure it's fully seated before tightening the screw. If the video cable to your monitor is weighing on the card, find a way to support it.
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