[KevinG]

Wierd - must be Karma. For the next 2 hours, I will be a Pelican working in Pharma.

I was just logging on to post a thread on how strange if feels to be sitting here packing up my office. Boxing personal items, taking down the framed posters of the 930 Cab and the Nissan GTP-ZX turbo. I've been working practically constantly since I was 14 - now 40 years later I am going to be somewhat voluntarily walking out the door without another job as the cause.

My company (biotech) is going through a very painful downsizing and the initial phase was to ask for volunteers for 'early retirement'. Around 1200 qualified, and a little more than half (including me) took the package. That left another 1500 or so that will not have a choice.

Yes, the industry is going through a much higher level of instability than it has had for a long time. There are many factors involved though and they all relate to sustainability of the current business models. In biotech, the cost of developing products has gone through the roof. People on the outside are screaming about the huge profits being made on brand products, which are generally true to a point. What they don't see is the 30-40% sales being pumped back into research to find new treatments. Focus is on blockbusters ($1 Billion in annual sales) because that is the only thing that Wall Street cares for. There is room and profit potential for smaller companies to fill the unmet medical needs for smaller market products, but it is difficult for these companies to attract the venture capital needed to fund the 10+ years needed to bring a new product to market. In my mind, 4 half-billion products is worth more than 1 1-billion product but the capital market just doesn't seem to be interested.

Sustaining the cost structure of medical products in the future seems to be breaking down rapidly. The cost of healthcare is rising so rapidly that it must soon bankrupt somebody - the insurers or the insured, maybe both. I don't have any answers, without the price support there will not be any new products. One of those new products may be needed to save my life in the future, so I hope new drug discovery continues.

In the meantime, I will continue to clean up the office and take the long walk out the door. I don't know what I am going to do - my only hobbies are my Porsche and making beer. If I don't get into something, the beer will make it difficult to get into the Porsche.

Uncertainly stumbling into the sunset......

Kevin