[legion]

Originally Posted by sammyg2

The ironic thing is, having these refineries cut back results in lower crude consumption, which should make crude price fall but it's still going up. Prolly due to speculators and uninformed investors who play a game they don't fully understand but who knows.

The fuel market is much too volatile because the demand has surpassed domestic supply. it doesn't take much more than a rumor to make it move. I don't know of anyone doing any funny business with the crude or fuel markets but I will be surprised if we don't have a scandal in the next year or so regarding manipulation of the crude market. I don't expect it to be an oil company, instead i expect a very large investor group to get nailed. Like i said, I don't know if it's happening, just that it is ripe and would be easy to do so and human nature being what it is .......

I'd be surprised if the SEC and DOE aren't already watching intently, the market is moving in ways that don't make sense to me.

If a trading/maniplulation scandal does happen the speculators and investors would run like rats off a sinking ship and that would cause crude oil futures to fall like a rock. The only ones left would be the foolish and the brave, but there would be serious money to be made in shorting futures. Fortunes.
I don't know if I have the appendages to play that short game but it is tempting, betting that people are screw-ups and if tempted will do the wrong thing.

I expect gasoline prices to keep going up for a month or so, then fall for a few months, and then go back up significanty in late spring 2008.
No bets on crude prices. I don't think they should be anywhere near as high as they are. The fundamentals don't support $100 right now, more like $70.

If anyone has the guts to short it big time and make lots O'money, make sure you let us know so we can live vicariously. safer to be a spectator.

I think your analysis is spot-on. I think there is some activity by traders (whether it be criminal or just the herd-mentality--I'm not sure). I also think that Russia is doing all it can to destabilize the Middle East to keep prices high.