I dunno. I really think a lot of people equate "Republican" with "Bush" and "War on Iraq". People gave the (R) party a chance in 2004 and from what I can tell, feel like they were swindled with "four more years" of the same old B.S., double-speak, deceit and incompetence. Hence the backlash in the Congressional election - which was a significant event.
Maybe I'm a bit too crusty and jaded, but I think there are an AWFUL lot of stupid people out there and that America at this point really would be stupid enough to elect Hillary. Keep in mind that this is a nation addicted to "American Idol" and "Dancing with the Stars".
Your average moron out there is going to go for CHARISMA, not for content. Hate to say it, but Hillary is quickly re-inventing herself to be a candidate that has the superficial appeal to get elected. Her versus any of the "stodgy old men" from the GOP side is a clear win for the Democrats. Remember why Walter Mondale lost? Why JFK won against Nixon? Why Bush II won against Gore? It's kind of like that. Personality and "skin-deep appeal" counts a LOT.
Again, I hope I'm wrong here, but if the Republicans want to win they better damn well start looking younger, more moderate on social issues and less like a bunch of grumpy old guffs. Fiscal conservatism is key, as is SPECIFIC numbers and budget proposals of how they're going to accomplish their objectives - just just more of the same old "I'm for a balanced budget and smaller government" with no details or specific plan to back it up. As far as that goes, God is in the details.
The other thing that the Republican nominee absolutely needs to do is to get up there and say unequivocally, "I am not George W. Bush. My administration will not resemble that of George W. Bush, my foreign and domestic policies do not necessarily align with those of George W. Bush and I think it's time we took this party and this nation in a NEW direction, quite different from the one that George W. Bush has taken us".
If they actually have the coconuts to say that, they've got a chance. Maybe.