[MRM]

Too many Republicans retiring and creating open seats for them to make many gains. They'll take back some of the seats from freshmen who shouldn't have won last year, but in the end it will probably be about even. The anger at the Republicans from last year hasn't yet turned completely toward the Democrats. The attiude I see is "A pox on both your houses" more than a swing back to the Republicans.

It will depend on who emerges as the presidential candidates for both parties. If one emerges I can see either party following the lead and having things break in that direction by election day, the way things broke for the Democrats last time. If no one perdonality emerges I think 2009 will look a lot like 2008.