Quote:
Originally Posted by MRM
Too many Republicans retiring and creating open seats for them to make many gains. They'll take back some of the seats from freshmen who shouldn't have won last year, but in the end it will probably be about even. The anger at the Republicans from last year hasn't yet turned completely toward the Democrats. The attiude I see is "A pox on both your houses" more than a swing back to the Republicans.
It will depend on who emerges as the presidential candidates for both parties. If one emerges I can see either party following the lead and having things break in that direction by election day, the way things broke for the Democrats last time. If no one perdonality emerges I think 2009 will look a lot like 2008.
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+1000
You can't get around the retirement and open seat thing. After being in the majority for a while, when the pendulum swings the other way, a lot of folks don't want to stick around to be in the minority much longer. Some of the open seats can be filled by appointment from GOP governors and the safe seats will stay that way even through the special elections. Republicans deserved to lose in '06 and I hope the lesson is sinking in. I think John Boehner and Roy Blunt have risen to the occasion and outwitted Pelosi on parliamentary procedure at most turns. Reid and Pelosi have very precious little to show for their year in charge. But that doesn't make anyone like Republicans more. Bush ain't helping either. As usual, it's a race to the bottom and voting for whom you hate less.