Quote:
Originally Posted by Wayne at Pelican Parts
I would be very surprised if she came in third.
-Wayne
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This is an excerpt I cut and pasted yesterday to send to some friends. It's from Bob Novak's column, but I can't find the whole thing anymore. I agree with it.
"Democrats: This is a three-way contest among Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.), Sen. Hillary Clinton (N.Y.), and former Sen. John Edwards (N.C.). It's possible that there are only three survivors out of Iowa for the Democrats and that the second-tier candidates will be gone by New Hampshire.
The similarities between Obama 2008 and Howard Dean in 2004 are real and could show themselves Thursday night. Obama is the new, fresh face in the race with youthful, enthusiastic, and idealistic supporters. For Dean, that same formula translated into caucus-day bust. Will the same happen to Obama?
Obama leads in most polls, and significantly in some. His negatives are much lower than Clinton's, and his positives are higher than Edwards'. He has as much money as Clinton and the edge in enthusiasm. However, his campaign team in Iowa is the least experienced of the top three. He could flame out like Dean, but all considered, he has to be viewed as the favorite.
Hillary's organization may be the strongest, but her negatives are the highest.
Her hardball tactics against Obama will hurt her. For the Democrats, who have a
viability threshold of at least 15% in each precinct, second choice matters, and
that is where Hillary's negatives will hurt her. She doesn't appear to be the second choice for very many voters at all.
Edwards has run in Iowa before and done well. His second-place finish in 2004, however, was in a weaker Democratic field. His negatives are low, however, and many polls have shown him as the most popular second choice among supporters of the second-tier candidates. In polls, he is right on Hillary's heels, and it is likely he will pass her in the caucuses.
The second-tier candidates -- Sen. Joe Biden (Del.), Sen. Chris Dodd (Conn.), and
New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson -- will struggle to reach the 15% viability threshold in many districts, with the top three garnering 85% among them in most areas. Of the three second-tier Democrats, Richardson has the best chance of even registering in the final results.
The Democratic field looks to shake out this way:
1st Place: Barack Obama
2nd Place: John Edwards
3rd Place: Hillary Clinton
4th Place: Bill Richardson"