livi, PPOT is not perfectly representative of the US electorate, in the degree of dislike for Hilary or in many other things.
That said, a lot of people do have negative feelings about her personally. I, for instance, have posted before that she just rubs me the wrong way, even though I liked Bill Clinton a lot and agree with many of Hilary's positions on the issues. As another example, we had two other couples over for dinner last night, turns out they were all ardent Democrats and despised Bush, but two of the four said they didn't like Hilary on a personal level.
My best guess about what is going on is, that a substantial majority of the electorate wants to reject Bush and a smaller majority wants to reject the Republican party. But it is really early in the election process, the primaries got moved up in time and most Americans are not paying much attention to the candidates yet. So in polls, many Democratic-leaning voters have been saying they support Hilary, simply because she is the best-known name among the Democratic candidates. Again, my best guess.
Now with the Iowa caucuses done, the primary elections are starting and voters will be sitting up, paying attention, and trying to figure out who they really do support.
From a foreign observer's viewpoint, I imagine the logic would be something like this: the US has swung towards the Democratic party, based on the weight of the polling, so it is more likely that the next President will be a Democrat. And until a few weeks ago, Hilary Clinton was polling as the front-runner among the Democratic candidates. So I can see why the international press would think she is the likely next President. But American presidential politics is not that predictable. If a Republican candidate really "connects" with the voters, convinces them that he shares their rejection of Bush and their demands for "change", and presents himself as a centrist, then I think that Republican candidate could win in 2008, even though the polls say the Democratic party has the advantage.
As for Obama's race, I doubt that hurts him much in the more liberal states or the more urban areas. I suspect it will hurt him in the more conservative states and in many rural areas. I don't know how much. I am skeptical that a black man can be elected President, but I'd be pleased to be proven wrong. I know if he is the nominee, I will pay a lot of attention to his vice-Presidential choice, because I think Obama would have a higher chance of being assassinated than would a white President. Again, I'd be pleased to be proven wrong.
P.S. - remember how arcane the Electoral College system is. It means that winning a state by a landslide is the same as winning by a hair - you still get all the state's electoral votes. You can lose the popular vote but win the Presidency. As a practical matter, many states are almost pre-determined to vote for the Democratic candidate (e.g. California) or for the Republican candidate (e.g. Texas). The 2008 election will come down to about 10 "swing" states. So if you wanted to figure out the impact of Obama's race (or anything else), you'd have to really dig into the demographics and attitudes in those key states, and in fact in some key regions of those states.
Quote:
Originally Posted by livi
Please, tell me how it is that Frau Clinton in International press is illustrated as the most potential next President - yet many of you portrait her as a person nobody likes and no one will want for President. Does not make sense.
Secondly, is the fact that Obama is black a disadvantage for him in this race. I guess it is - how much?
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