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I don't think Obama can win, I don't think Hispanics as a whole will vote for him, I think about 11% of the US is black, maybe 70% of them are Democrats but maybe only 30% of them vote. Maybe more this year ? They are congregated in certain areas, many states don't have a large black population, so I just don't think you will be able to count the black vote as that big of a voting block. It will be offset by in some cases, the whole rest of the state. SC is different, not at all the norm.
Hillary will win the Democrat bid, ALL Democrats will vote for her. The Blacks will lose interest because Obama isn't there. Or, if we are lucky vote against the #$%%^&. The country is more or less 50/50 so only swing voters that really hate the #$%$$ make the difference.
These numbers are just my guess, I am too lazy to look them up.
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