View Single Post
the the is offline
Registered
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Colorado, USA
Posts: 8,279
My beloved graph!

There is a chart that goes along with that, which shows the price increases and declines per quarter for each of those areas in So. Cal. (and other areas, too). It is really amazing, because it can be used to very accurately predict the future.

It takes a few minutes to study it and see how it works (with the colors and all), but it is well worth it. Look at the patterns (So Cal is in around where it was in 1991/1992 in the last cycle), and you'll see not only where So Cal has been, but where it is going.

Be sure to look down at the bottom, to see what the different colors represent. As you will see, historically, cycles take a long time. In other words, once you get into a color, that color stays for many, many years. As you will also see, So. Cal. has just entered into the "red" phase. San Diego (which lead the bubble) has been there for over a year now, Orange County is a quarter behind, and LA is a quarter behind that. Fill it out for the next 7 years, and send that to your realtor!

http://www.housingbubblebust.com/OFHEO/Misc/92SoCalRecession.html

I first printed this chart out in '05 or so. At the time, I filled it out all the way to 2010. To get the numbers, I just used them from the last cycle. By doing so, I was able to very accurately predict the future. You can fill it out to the end, starting now, and see the future.

There are many, many, many years of red numbers ahead for So. Cal. The chart don't lie.

Last edited by the; 02-19-2008 at 09:55 AM..
Old 02-19-2008, 09:49 AM
  Pelican Parts Catalog | Tech Articles | Promos & Specials    Reply With Quote #10 (permalink)