Quote:
Originally Posted by Moses
We are not yet in a recession. It seems likely that we will be, but we are not.
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What makes you think that? I'd be curious to hear.
Of course, we won't know whether we are currently in the first quarter of a recession until after the 1Q 2008, and the 2Q 2008 numbers come out. But IMO, it seems very likely that the 1Q 2008 GDP number is going to be negative.
I base that on the 3Q 2007 and the 4Q 2007 numbers.
3Q 2007 was 4.9%.
4Q 2007 declined quite a bit, to 0.6, narrowly avoiding going to a negative number.
I do not think things have improved, will continue to trend down, and 1Q 2008 will be lower than 4Q07. There isn't much room for it to be lower, and NOT be a negative number. And it will not improve through the first half of the year.
So, when we look back at the end of the year, we will see that we are indeed currently in a recession, is my guess.