Quote:
Originally Posted by tshore
... were they really all that dangerous? Mustard gas has been around since WWI. Assuming the shells were 155mm, the range would have been, what, 20 miles? And they would only be effective in near-ideal wind/weather conditions. And readily countered by use of gas masks, even if mounted on longer range delivery systems...
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From an earlier thread regarding WMD
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/showthread.php?t=289641
"it is hard to know for sure since we do not know exactly what the 500 chemical shells are or their condition. It depends on their condition several years ago, not today. Age is not the only factor. Since we know that at least one binary shell (nerve gas) has been found, if a significant number were of that variety....they would likely still be quite potent. So significant casualties would be possible under the proper conditions (perfect storm/perfect planning…like on 9/11). Certainly not on the battlefield against a prepared enemy, but possibly under urban conditions. Chemical agent dispersal is highly dependant on atmospheric conditions (temperature, winds and humidity) and terrain (desert in this case). In the perfect scenario; attacking a dense population without defenses in a low lying area and proper wind conditions...maybe yes."
Attacking a typical undefensed Middle Eastern City with mild winds (making it a bit less effective than calm) with 500 Iraqi artillery shells with the typical Iraqi load of simple Sarin as used in the Iraq/Iran Wa would result (modeled) in approximately 10K fatalities and exposure symptoms of approximately 100K. Higher density or more favorable wind conditions would make it worse. So yes, you are correct if the weapons are all artillery shells and all the chemicals were used as such. Mustard gas would hold up well but be less lethal. Sarin (non-binary) worse...and less lethal over time"
"Results of the closest published modeled scenario (to my scenario and calculations) that I could find that I can post here is:
Ballistic Missile attack on Tel Aviv, Israel (March Winds) 225 kg of GB (Sarin) 3,000 Casualties; More than 31,000 Potentially Exposed
This alone is 6 times your estimate for 500 shells and only uses 75 artillery rounds. Each shell normally contains about 3 kg sarin...so to extrapolate (although you sacrifice a degree of accuracy), 500 shells would equate to around 1500 kg. or approx 6.67 times the casualties...or approx. 20,010 casualties"