Quote:
Originally Posted by jyl
Judging from prior housing busts in California, one of which I lived through, house prices do not do a V-bottom - i.e., do not hit bottom and then rapidly rise again. They decline for a long time and then stay low for years.
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Exactly. In the last So. Cal. bubble (which I lived through), prices peaked around 89, plummeted for 2 years, there was a dead cat false rally around late 91, then a gradual, constant decline until the middle/end of 1997.
This time will be no different. Right now, So. Cal. 2006 = So. Cal. 1989, and So. Cal. 2008 = So Cal. 1991.