[legion]

I think we've reached the peak in oil prices.

People have changed their behavior. Demand is down. People are not going to go out an guy a new Suburban tomorrow, even if the price at the pump hits $0.99 a gallon--they are too fearful of another price shock and will stay conservative in their use of gasoline for the time-being.

The oil traders have finally caught on. I know that we've reached the peak because they are selling despite the normal supply-concern rumblings from Nigeria and such. A week ago, this would have sent prices up $3 immediately. I expect to see a long decline all summer in crude prices. (Up like a rocket, down like a feather.)

Of course, all of this is just speculation. I fully expect to see another round of saber-rattling from Iran as prices decline. This is the true test of the prevailing mood of oil traders.