[legion]

I'm of the opinion that there is no real replacement for petroleum. I think that after we run out of oil, we will encounter another dark age.

I foresee the population of the planet dropping dramatically, perhaps to 1/100th or 1/1000th of what it is today. Society as we know it will collapse. For a time, communities and countries will be isolated.

There are several reasons for this.

First of all, crop yields right now are at all-time highs because of mechanized harvests and crude-based fertilizers. Take those away, and we will see yields closer to what we saw at the end of the 19th century.

Second, many people in the "first world" have no idea how to survive if their food doesn't come from the grocery store. Our lives of convenience have made us ignorant of the most basic survival skills. I cite as an example the number of people who are grossed out by watching an animal be slaughtered. Three or four generations ago, it was probably a skill everyone had to learn.

I don't see "alternative energy" as replacing petroleum. At best, it will just supplement it for a while. Fact is, that all of the alternatives combined can't replace what petroleum produces.

When do I see this happening? Several hundred years in the future. I think we have plenty of oil to last us centuries. Sure, the easy-to-get light, sweet crude is running out, but there are still the tar sands in Canada and other, larger sources that are tough to extract.