The US Energy Information Agency is the analytical arm of the US Dept of Energy. EIA is one of the most authoritative sources of data and analysis on the global energy markets.
The EIA recently analyzed the likely impact of increased offshore drilling in the coastal USA.
"Impacts of Increased Access to Oil and Natural Gas Resources in the Lower 48 Federal Outer Continental Shelf"
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/otheranalysis/ongr.html
The projections in the OCS access case indicate that access to the Pacific, Atlantic, and eastern Gulf regions would not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production or prices before 2030. Leasing would begin no sooner than 2012, and production would not be expected to start before 2017. Total domestic production of crude oil from 2012 through 2030 in the OCS access case is projected to be 1.6 percent higher than in the reference case, and 3 percent higher in 2030 alone, at 5.6 million barrels per day. For the lower 48 OCS, annual crude oil production in 2030 is projected to be 7 percent higher—2.4 million barrels per day in the OCS access case compared with 2.2 million barrels per day in the reference case (Figure 20). Because oil prices are determined on the international market, however, any impact on average wellhead prices is expected to be insignificant.
The EIA also analyzed the likely impact of ANWR drilling.
"Analysis of Crude Oil Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge"
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/anwr/pdf/sroiaf(2008)03.pdf
The opening of the ANWR 1002 Area to oil and natural gas development is projected to increase domestic crude oil production starting in 2018. In the mean ANWR oil resource case, additional oil production resulting from the opening of ANWR reaches 780,000 barrels per day in 2027 and then declines to 710,000 barrels per day in 2030. In the low and high ANWR oil resource cases, additional oil production resulting from the opening of ANWR peaks in 2028 at 510,000 and 1.45 million barrels per day, respectively.
With respect to the world oil price impact, projected ANWR oil production constitutes between 0.4 and 1.2 percent of total world oil consumption in 2030, based on the low and high resource cases, respectively. Consequently, ANWR oil production is not projected to have a large impact on world oil prices. Relative to the AEO2008 reference case, ANWR oil production is projected to have its largest oil price reduction impacts as follows: a reduction in low-sulfur, light (LSL) crude oil2 prices of $0.41 per barrel (2006 dollars) in 2026 in the low oil resource case, $0.75 per barrel in 2025 in the mean oil resource case, and $1.44 per barrel in 2027 in the high oil resource case. Assuming that world oil markets continue to work as they do today, theOrganization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) could neutralize any potential price impact of ANWR oil production by reducing its oil exports
My view is that drilling off the coasts or in ANWR is basically irrelevant to the price of oil, now or over the next few decades.
Knowing that many Americans are desperate for any way to continue their gas-guzzling habits, and also knowing that most Americans know next to nothing about the oil market, the oil industry and their allied politicians are seizing $4 gas as a club to get the access they want. Similar, in many ways, to the way some politicians used 9/11 as a club to get the war they wanted.
I wouldn't say we should "never" drill in these areas, but I think it would be better to keep the oil in the ground until we really, really need it. E.g. when/if oil is literally running out. Draining those fields in the next couple decades just to keep dumping cheap gasoline down the filler tubes of 13 MPG SUVs doesn't make sense to me.
Especially since, as the DOE understands, it won't make a whit of difference to gasoline prices, because oil is a globally traded commodity.
These reports are inconvenient for the Administration. I suppose some analysts and scientists at the DOE are going to get fired pretty soon.