[RWebb]

I imagine China would prefer stability and no wars. Then we have lots of $$ to buy their stuff, and peace allows them to seek more raw materials to import.

"pretty heavy resistance" in Iran if we attack. I'm not sure what that means specifically. Our military is not quite powerful but also evolves much more rapidly than the militaries of other nations. That does not mean we should act like the Romans, but if we attack Iran, they will be completely plastered, except for unconventional warfare techniques. A massive invasion is really out of the question, much less an occupation. But, a mostly aerial attack is something else. We already have thousand of cruise missiles in theater. The new ones have a loiter capability and can be targeted in real time. They can be fired from surface ships AND subs. Two carrier groups means we can bomb 24/7 even w/o any USAF. Not that USAF will allow themselves to be left out of the fun.

What exactly are the Iranians going to do about it? They have no real air force, and even the 2nd best air force on the planet is not a match. Do they want to fire missiles? We have trace-back and can hit even mobile launchers in seconds. Do they want to light up a radar? HARM...

Mining is a very clear Act of War in Int'l Law. It would be a big mistake and Bush would surely seize it right away.

OTOH, the pro-westernism of some Iranians (mostly the young) will likely fade pretty quickly if attacked. Nobody likes that.


I would not get too excited about military capability however. Like a martial art, is best used when it is not used at all. A US attack on Iran would be a very serious issue. If bush does it, and he very well may, we will all have to point and say "Hey we got rid of him! We are peaceful now." Then, after 4 to 8 years of peaceful diplomacy, we can shift back to a warlike president in 2016 or so.