Joe, you're a smart guy on some things but on this housing thing you're simply, 100% dead wrong. Look around out there. Seriously. If you honestly think housing prices in Phoenix (or anywhere else) are "rebounding" or "about to rebound", I've got a bridge to sell you. And I'll even throw in some oceanfront property in Nebraska. You're absolutely delusional if you think you're going to see sustained appreciation anytime soon. Turn down that Thorazine drip. . .
Granted you are in a particularly good situation because you're close to retirement, you don't have a lot of debt and it sounds like you've been pretty responsible with most of your financial decisions - so even a 30% decline likely wouldn't matter too much to you unless you were planning on selling soon. But to come on here and act so polyanna-ish and smug about it is very out of character. I don't like being a pessimist, but I definitely prefer to be a realist and the reality right now is that housing is GOING to decline. Almost universally. The exceptions are going to be VERY rare. Not 1-in-10, not even 1-in-1,000, more like 1-in-100,000. If you're fortunate enough to have one of those, go buy yourself a lotto ticket because you are a very, very lucky guy. There's simply no way on God's green earth you're going to see sustained appreciation. Not a chance. As a pilot I figured you'd have decent overall situational awareness skills, but on this issue they seem completely absent. . .
I wish the best for you - I really do - but I hope you're not setting yourself up for very, very bitter disappointment by having your head in the sand on this one. I honestly hope you're in a position where it doesn't really matter and you can just hold onto the place for a while even if you get whacked with a substantial value decline.
The declines are definitely coming - and they are NOT regional. They are being driven by drying-up financing which is dessicating the pool of potential buyers (destroying demand). Destroy demand, what happens to price? C'mon - this is Econ. 101. Here's a good article on the subject:
http://patrick.net/housing/contrib/fdic.html
Again, I'm not saying this stuff to be a pessimist - I'm saying it so that (hopefully) you don't get burned. All I can do is point to the weather radar and show you the big red blotch right in front of us. If you choose to fly into it, that's your business.