[MRM]

Realclearpolitics.com still has Obama ahead in their poll of polls. He's been consistently about 3% ahead in most national polls, which is within or pretty close to the margin of error. This should be his high mark, as Sammy pointed out. But I would have liked to see McCain showing some movement by now. The real race doesn't begin until the conventions, and then gets serious after Labor day. But still, if you look at the states in play, the electoral college count shapes up way better for Obama than McCain. I suspect the real numbers are closer than the polls suggest. Republicans tend to run a few points better on election day than they do in polls, and Obama tends to run a few points lower on election day than in polls. It's going to be interesting to see how things play out. The debates could be decisive.