[jyl]

jurgen and anyone else who wants to play, how about this:

Give me your guess/estimate/scenario for the following variables, and I'll return an estimate of the total loss for US residential mortgages. Since we can find out how much of each type of mortgage was originated in each year, its not hard to do a back-of-envelope estimate.

Variables (don't get turned off by the length of the list, its just the same question for each year and mortgage pool).
1. For subprime mortgages originated in 2007, (a) percent that will be foreclosed, (b) foreclosure sale price as pct of original selling price.
2. For subprime mortgages originated in 2006, (a) percent that will be foreclosed, (b) foreclosure sale price as pct of original selling price.
3. For subprime mortgages originated in 2005, (a) percent that will be foreclosed, (b) foreclosure sale price as pct of original selling price.
4. For subprime mortgages that existed prior to 2005, (a) percent that will be foreclosed, (b) foreclosure sale price as pct of original selling price.
5. For AltA mortgages originated in 2007, (a) percent that will be foreclosed, (b) foreclosure sale price as pct of original selling price.
6. For AltA mortgages originated in 2006, (a) percent that will be foreclosed, (b) foreclosure sale price as pct of original selling price.
7. For AltA mortgages originated in 2005, (a) percent that will be foreclosed, (b) foreclosure sale price as pct of original selling price.
8. For AltA mortgages that existed prior to 2005, (a) percent that will be foreclosed, (b) foreclosure sale price as pct of original selling price.
9. For prime mortgages originated in 2007, (a) percent that will be foreclosed, (b) foreclosure sale price as pct of original selling price.
10. For prime mortgages originated in 2006, (a) percent that will be foreclosed, (b) foreclosure sale price as pct of original selling price.
11. For prime mortgages originated in 2005, (a) percent that will be foreclosed, (b) foreclosure sale price as pct of original selling price.
12. For prime mortgages that existed prior to 2005, (a) percent that will be foreclosed, (b) foreclosure sale price as pct of original selling price.