[turbo6bar]

I say worst case 5% foreclosure rate and anywhere from 15-25% loss on sale. Don't overlook the expense of foreclosure sale, back taxes, attorney fees, lost interest, etc which are not reflected in foreclosure sale price. The losses can grow dramatically over a short period of time. OK, let's say worst case 40% loss upon foreclosure sale. I'm confident in the foreclosure rate, and possibly overoptimistic (to the low side) in the loss %.