[slakjaw]

Originally Posted by MRM

Impossible. The iPhone failed. I read it here on PPOTBB. It must be true.

Seriously, RIM is not a good strategic stock to buy, and Apple is a one trick pony. Apple develops a new device every year or so, gets great earnings off of it, their price shoots up, the novelty of the device wears off, competition moves in, Apple's earnings fall and their stock takes a hit. Don't look at Apple as a tech stock. Look at is as a consumer stock like Best Buy. Compare Best Buy's stock with Apple's and I'll bet you'll see them both swing up when times are good and there's a new product out; they both sag at other times.

RIM is in a bad position, not because the Blackberry is a bad product. It's a good product and it generates a lot of revenue. But the share price already reflects the revenue the BB generates, so RIM needs to expand the brand or come up with new products to generate new revenue. When it came out the BB was revolutionary. Now there's a BB knock off on every corner and serious competitors are creating excellent products. RIM is being squeezed, and will get squeezed more as the business smart phone becomes comdotized.

RIM and Apple will fluxuate in price but they will never again be the incredible stocks they were because the market their game-changing products created are becoming mature. Unless they can come up with more market-creating products, they will stagnate where they are, fending off competition from everyone who wants to build a phone/PDA/computer/MP3 player with 90% of the capabilities for 50% of the price. Of the two, Apple has the best chance because it has a history of creating new devices that create new markets, but it alwys comes back to the same business plan of having to create a new revolutionary device every year or so to maintain the rush of increased earnings that supports a high share price.

I agree I don't think the novelty of the iphone has worn off enough yet to call anything RIM develops an "iphone killer" though.