[jyl]

The official arbiter of recessions, the NBER, has declared this recession started in Dec 2007.

Admittedly there is something over-precise about that - why not November 2007? or January 2008? - but let's just go with December 2007 for now.

Most recessions are over by the time the NBER declares them. At 12 months and counting, this is already the longest postwar recession since 1973-1975 and 1981-1982, which were about 16 months each. (Although, some say the entire 1973-1977 period was basically one long recession with a short false dawn in the middle.)

So, suppose this recession lasts 24 months, from Dec 2007 all the way through Dec 2009.

Well, the stock market typically troughs out 6 to 9 months, more or less, before a recession ends. So, if history is a guide, the market might bottom out in 3 to 6 months. Or earlier, if the recession is shorter than 24 months. (Or later, if this is going to be a 1930s experience.)

Hey, just thought I'd bring some relative and conditional cheer to the party.