Here is a quick example of perhaps propaganda touting the record profits from 2005 for oil companies at $60/ barrel.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8646744/#storyContinued
I am one of those small investors who has some of my retirement savings in resources. If I averaged out the last 10 years they would yield exactly what you had said at 10%. The last few years, some of them were (finally) paying off at aprox. 38 to 45%. So not really a hunch but a reality that profits were there and paid out to people (like me) who deserved decent return on the dollar. There were quite a few pretty bad years in there before this peak.
The Petro Canada thing, going from memory I think they first lost their steam plant to some failure then within a month lost a catalyst or catalytic cracking unit? that took them down for another period of time.
It was reported a while back on how much demand has increased on North American refineries, and how little new capacity has been added. It would be my hunch that the proper re investment has not been made.
What percentage of the refiners would you say are independents in your industry?