[Porsche-O-Phile]

Originally Posted by jyl

1. How concerned, alarmed, anxious are you (or maybe aren't you) about California's budget crisis?

A bit concerned. Not particularly alarmed - I've seen this coming for years. A state like this that is punch drunk on spending was inevitably going to "hit the wall" eventually. I am a tad anxious about it for reasons that I'll get into in a moment...

Originally Posted by jyl

2. Do you think the crisis is likely to affect you in some way? How and why, or why not?

Yes. I expect that the state will declare bankruptcy and go into "restructuring". In so doing, they will shed themselves of some debt burden which (unfortunately for me) includes my 2008 tax refund and possibly my state unemployment insurance benefits. That would suck for me (and probably suck a lot worse for a lot of other people in even worse shape than me). But ultimately I see BK as inevitable for this state. CA simply cannot continue on its present course. It just can't. And it refuses to accept the reality that spending more than revenues support is unsustainable. The state government is in COMPLETE denial of this. But you and I know that the math just simply doesn't work - the state is spending WAY more than it is taking in from all sources and our Legislature continues to try to "solve" this problem by only considering the revenue side of the equation - not the spending side. It's at a point now where it really is paralyzing the state economy - crushing business, driving business away, causing layoffs and job losses and causing people to flee the state for other locales where they actually might have a chance to be profitable. For one, I will not incorporate or start a business here. I have studied and worked hard my entire life with the dream of opening my own business/design practice someday, but I have resigned myself to the reality that CA simply does not want me to succeed here. So I will (sadly) take my skills, aspirations and dreams and base myself someplace else. I may actually do work in the state and physically reside here, but I will never hire an employee in CA and will do everything possible by basing my practice in another state (probably AZ) to avoid the crushing tax burdens and regulatory restrictions of CA. It has simply become way too business-unfriendly to do things conventionally here. I'm certainly not alone here in my thoughts/actions too...

There are other ways the state's over-spending is affecting me (and others) directly - stepped-up enforcement of silly laws that exist for no purpose other than revenue generation, decrease/elimination/scaling back of services and programs, etc.

Originally Posted by jyl

3. What do you expect to happen, and when?

I fully suspect the state will declare BK by summer - this way they can get the bulk of their "IOUs" for state tax refunds pending written off in court. That'll be a huge load off the state from a financial standpoint (but it'll naturally f*ck over the taxpayers).

Originally Posted by jyl

4. What changes should be made to avoid this problem in the future? (I'm really only interested in actions that have a good chance of happening in the real world, not "nuke Sacramento" and similar juvenile inanities. This is not a ricer forum.)

Nothing can be done. Until the prevailing mentality in this state changes from something other than a pseudo-communist one which results in the same buffoons being elected to the State ASSembly year after year, nothing will change meaningfully. You'll occasionally get a new name on a ballot promising "reform" and "accountability" but at the end of the day, those folks will just become the next generation of corrupt, drunken-sailor-spending hacks.

I laud Arnold for actually taking the Legislature on directly and for calling them out on their spending habits and intransigence, but you see where it's gotten him - he's now blocked and stonewalled at every turn and his credibility has suffered as a result. Ultimately the "drunken sailor spenders" in the ASSembly control the show - and anyone who stands in their way (even a popular governor) is stonewalled and marginalized. They eat their own. Ultimately it's all about the underlying philosophy of whose money it is and a sense of entitlement to it. That trumps EVERYTHING else here.

Ultimately I blame an entrenched culture of socialism in the State ASSembly (Legislative branch) for this. It's historically not been shared by the Executive branch - it's been mostly the Legislative (there are some times when the Governor's office has been culpable too, but certainly not always). The Judicial branch is somewhat culpable too, as it has tended to uphold some of the more socialist "principles" of the Legislative branch over the years. The culture of the State ASSembly really is one of viewing every single dollar in the state as belonging to them, rather than the people and businesses of the state. I really truly do believe these folks look at the people and businesses in the state as nothing more than stewards or banks who are temporarily holding THEIR money, and that it's available for their withdrawal and appropriation (as they see fit) by simply writing out a withdrawal slip in the form of new taxes, fees, surcharges and regulatory restrictions. The concept of "people's money" is completely absent from the Legislative branch of this state and any view to the contrary (whether by new members to the ASSembly or the governor's office or proposed efforts at organizing by the populace) is crushed without mercy.

To add to the problem, I see no shortage of socialist/communist thinking in this state from the uber-left types that tend to be ubiquitous in the urban centers (most notably San Fran and L.A./Hollywood). As such, there will be no change until the state literally collapses under the weight of its own obligations to itself, by which time it will be too late. I actually suspect this will happen in the next 1-3 years, leading to a COMPLETE breakdown in government programs, probably even leading to looting, open civil unrest and other social problems to the point where the National Guard needs to be called in to restore order. I see a complete overhaul of the state constitution as a quite possible outcome if/when the complete financial collapse occurs. Yes, I do think this is a real possibility here and probably even a likelihood. There's no way the State of CA continues in its present form. Not a snowball's chance in hades.