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"The average car in the US is appx 9.5 years old. The average age has moved up with the collapse in new car sales. New car sales fell appx -36% YOY in the Oct 08-Feb 09 period." JYL


This is another example of America becoming less affluent. There is an attrition rate of cars that are scrapped every year, as they wear out. The US has for years sold approxiately 14M cars per year, as of late that rate has gone down to about 9M units. GM was of the belief that there is a pent up demand as the attrition rate will require that new cars will be purchased and the number of units sold will have to make up for that attrition.

So while the pent up demand will require that new cars sales will increase it is a fallacy to think that will be sustained. Once the attrition rate is caught up with, people will repair or buy a used second car instead of new thus the age of the fleet will increase. While the population increases new car sales will increase but instead of climbing to previous levels of per ca pita consumption it will in actuality go down.