[jyl]

It is apparent that the 2008-2009 recession is ending. Virtually every macro indicator, from durable goods orders to initial unemployment claims, housing starts to leading economic indicators, is showing patterns similar to those seen at the end of prior recessions over the past 50 years. The official "end date" won't be called by NBER for a year or so, but I believe the history books will record that this recession ended some time in 2H09.

The current debate has mostly shifted to the vigor, or not, of the coming economic expansion. Will it be a slow, weak, and fitful recovery, hobbled by weak employment, stagnant wages, high consumer savings rate, rising interest rates - which I think is the current "consensus" view? Or will the recovery surprise, on the upside or the downside?

The coming debate will be the potential for a double-dip recession, similar to the early 1980s. The bearish view is that the expansion will sputter out after the federal stimulus fades in 2011 or so, and the economy will fall into another recession.

Please keep your PARF-y comments out of this thread. We've managed to discuss economic and investment topics in a non-partisan, non-political way that has allowed these threads to stay out of the PARF cesspool - let's keep it up.