[jyl]

Unemployment will continue to rise for some time after a recession ends. That is normal, we've seen it in prior cycles.

I'm not sure about the foreclosure patterns in prior cycles as compared to this one.

The federal stimulus has had barely any effect, because very little of the money has been disbursed yet. Most of that money will be disbursed in 2010 and 2011.

In general, one has to avoid confusing "the recession is ending" with "the economy is good". By definition, when a recession ends, the economy is at its worst. Then when the expansion begins, the economy remains bad for some time. The economy does not become "good" again until the expansion has been going on for some time (often years). If you wait for the economy to be "good" again, you miss much of the investment opportunity.