http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/13/AR2009081300504.html?hpid=topnews
Fresh signs of a nascent economic recovery came from hard-hit Europe on Thursday, with Germany and France unexpectedly becoming the first major industrialized nations to officially pull out of the global recession.
But note
With many analysts also predicting a "jobless recovery" in the United States, such as the one following the 2001 recession, a projected global turnaround later this year may be more visible in statistical calculations than in consumer pocketbooks around the world.
This is the consensus, conventional wisdom - that the recovery will be jobless and weak.
Because everyone is so convinced of this, it is worth thinking very hard about. How deep and hard has the fall in production, inventories, spending, investment, employment been? Have companies and consumers cut too far, too fast? Does a big decline tend to lead to a stronger recovery? What is the historical pattern, what is the mechanism behind it? Going against consensus (and being right) is often very good.