[jyl]

The data I'm referring to exclude temporary census workers. Everybody knows the census hiring will distort the picture so that is being backed out of the numbers. And what I'm watching is net change in jobs, not the UE ratio which has the problems you describe.

It has been obvious for some time that the economy is recovering. Industrial production, consumer spending, etc turned to the positive several months ago. Employment always lags, but it is beginning to grow now. Housing is also lagging, but should finally bottom out this year.

I know you tend to take a glass half empty view of the economy, perhaps understandable for an architect - had dinner Friday w/ my architect friend who has been unemployed for over a year, lost his home, and now sees "must speak fluent Mandarin" on all the job postings - but consider that being habitually negative is just as much of an error-inducing bias as being habitually positive.

Are you still clinging to the idea that we remain in recession? Haven't noticed the recovery that started, however fitfully, six months ago?

Don't make the mistake of equating "recession" with "bad times" and "recovery" with "good times". Recession means the economy is contracting, ie getting worse. Recovery means the economy is expanding, ie getting better. When the economy shifts from recession to recovery, the economy is at it's very worst. We can then recover for some time before things feel "good" again. (Similarly, things don't feel "bad" until some time after a recession starts.) If you wait until things feel "good", you'll fail to perceive the beginning of the recovery. That is especially true this time, because the recession was so severe.