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Cars & Coffee Killer
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: State of Failure
Posts: 32,246
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In 1998, there was pervasive doubt in the markets regarding Asian companies. Investors flooded the U.S. equity markets with money. At the same time, a new technology, the Internet, promised to make anyone rich who invested in it. When investors ran out of companies with good ideas to invest in, they worked their way progressively down the ladder. There was more money than sense, and anything that ended in "dot com" brought in huge investments.
Turns out, only some of the new businesses had viable models, and not every product was profitable to distribute online. Investors had learned their lesson, and as the dot com bubble deflated, they ran for surer territory. What could be more sure than real estate?
So now, 12 years later, we see some countries in Europe having trouble with the economics of their governance models. Investors will surely flee for safer investment vehicles. That generally means U.S. bond and equity markets. Maybe even U.S. Treasuries. I'd warn investors this: just because you put your money on the safest ship in the harbor, doesn't mean it cannot be sank as well. The U.S. is on the same path as Greece, just 15-20 years behind.
I can predict with certainty that there will be some hot thing to invest money in soon. It's okay to follow the herd, but be ready to sell when you start hearing about "a new paradigm" and how "the price will never go down".
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Some Porsches long ago...then a wankle...
5 liters of VVT fury now
-Chris
"There is freedom in risk, just as there is oppression in security."
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