Quote:
Originally Posted by Heel n Toe
I know what they can do because of the proximity... I just wonder if they would do that if one of their ships was taken out in response. One ship.
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Assume a 99% chance of no response, would you risk a 1% chance of losing your capital city?
This thread should be moved to PARF and we can "war game" the scenario.
Here's my $0.02:-
(Remember the Korean war never ended, there's just a ceasefire)
South sinks DPRK vessel.
DPRK declares open naval war, losses on both sides, including Southern civilian.
America and China urge restraint. America makes it clear that it will not support any "disproportionate" response by the South. China mobilises along the DPRK border (to prevent 23 million refugees flooding into China).
South Korean navy cannot keep sealanes safe enough that maritime insurers will allow commercial shipping to serve the South. Southern economic crisis, exacerbated by refugees flooding South from Seoul. Martial law. DPRK openly threatens American naval vessels, so American naval vessels withdrawn.
Southern economic collapse.
South re-establishes truce with DPRK.
Post script: Unnerved by lack of American military support, South Korea develops its own nuclear deterrent. Japan watches events on the Korean Peninsula and concludes that American bases do not guarentee security. Popular uprising against the bases, bases closed. New Japanese constitution, Japanese nuclear deterrent.