[jyl]

I've observed that who gets laid off is more often due to the trends/financials of their particular part of the company, or internal politics/who is and isn't kissing ass, than to their own performance. Maybe 1/3, 1/3, and 1/3.

On the flip side, the people who are looking to jump ship are doing so for a reason. In my experience it is more often a "good" reason, but sometimes a potentially "bad" reason - don't work well w/ others, been passed over, see the handwriting on the wall. Maybe 2/3, 1/3.

The odds don't, in my view, clearly favor the currently employed applicants. I'm sure this varies by industry and era.