[jyl]

The OP doesn't consider that the Leaf ($33K before $7K credit) and the Volt ($41K before $7K credit) are very different cars.

The Leaf can only drive 100 miles - maybe. Reviewers are finding that actual range can be as low as 60 miles and as high as 140 miles, depends on on how and where you drive. So the Leaf is a very limited vehicle. For almost anyone, the Leaf can't be their only car, it has to be a second, commuting car for a customer who somehow has plenty of parking but doesn't live too far out in the suburbs. The mass market will not pay much for that, it's not even a mass market car.

The Volt has all the capabilities of a normal car. You have unlimited range, assuming there are gas stations. No worries about the car running out of juice 10 miles from home, or whether you can find a parking place next to an electrical outlet. For most people, the Volt could be their only car. The mass market will pay substantially more for that.

How much will they pay for a Volt? Well, Priuses are selling at appx 170K/yr unit rate (as of May) with typical price $27-28K. I'm not seeing why I'd pay $6-7K more for a Volt, but perhaps GM is okay with selling, say, 30-50K/yr Volts at first, then getting the cost down as volumes rise. If GM is saying they will see 200K/yr Volts (I haven't heard that) then I think they are going to be disappointed.