Quote:
Originally Posted by Wayne at Pelican Parts
Normally I let other people correct Tabs' frequent pontifications when he's wrong, but in this case he's talking about something he doesn't know anything about (me / Pelican), so I thought it my responsibility to correct him. First of all, I feel that the notorious-for-stocks month of October, combined with upcoming election jitters, and uncertainty regarding tax law changes would create a very volatile end of year for the equities market. I still feel that way - the portfolio rebalancing that I did about a month ago changed my percentages from about 95% equities to about 25%. The time for evaluation of this strategy will be in February 2011 - after the dust has settled on all of these upcoming events. Secondly, at this moment in time, we're working on some significant alternative investments to the equities market, and as a result, the risk to capital by holding it in a potentially fickle stock market was/is not a good option at this moment. More information on these alternative investments will be forthcoming in the near future.
-Wayne
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I do not care how U want to slice it...getting out at 1045 on the SP500 was a poor risk to reward decison....your downside risk at that point was minimal because 1040 was the BOTTOM OF THE TRADING RANGE...If you had wanted out you should have waited to get clsoer to the top of the range. And then you should have pulled the money out incrementally...You sold out at the BOTTOM..you lost out on a 10% move...even an idiot like myself knows that...
The Stock Market is not strictly a numbers game..if it were everybody would get rich..the Market is an organic creature...At 1040 on the SP 500 i had watched over and over again the buyers come in...it is the perceived bargain point...Mr Tepper noted that at 1000 on the SP500 he backs the truck up and BUYS...in other words he shifts his model to nelrly 100% equities..
Ironically Support levels are self fulling prophecys as it is the peception that it is a buying point that makes it so...