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Manheim numbers are usually high. I'd characterize most Manheim sales as being at "low retail." How those bidders end up making money, it's a tough business with low margins. IMO at the big auctions you get a lot of people that aren't very bright (it's a transient business, people come and go) and bid stuff up too high.
There isn't much opportunity for a real inspection. You can see the car on the lot the day before or the day of the auction. Sometimes the key is in it and you can start it up and hear it run. You typically can't drive it, take stuff apart, jack it up, etc. Basically, just a "walk around" inspection. Most bidders spend maybe 15 minutes looking at a car before bidding.
If it runs and drives and shows nice, I'd guess they'd get low 20s at an auction, depending on who is there, if anyone wants it, etc. At the price they're asking now, it's probably getting close to being thought about blowing it out an an auction.
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