I was listening to a speech from a senior VP of Shell oil company in January 2006.
Afterwards in the Q&A session, I asked why it appeared that Shell was moving towards getting out of the North American refining market while another smaller company was trying to expand.
He started off not confirming or denying if they were selling and getting out or not, and then he offered this: "evidently they have more faith in this market over the next few years than we do".
2 months later Shell sold that refinery to a small independent refining company for a huge amount of money, probably 3 times what it's worth now.
I shoulda listened to him.
But .... howd he know? How did the Shell execs know the US economy and refining industry was gonna tank 1-1/2 years before it did?
That's when I figured it out. The really big boys know what's gonna happen before it does. I don't know if they actually control things and make it happen or if they just see it coming from a long ways away, but they are always ahead of the game.
The best I can do is watch what they do and ride their coat-tails.
There ain't no insider info either, everything I disclose is public info or old enuff it aint applicible no mo.
I can tell you this, if Shell or BP start spending money on refining again I'm in.
But they are doing just the opposite of that, they are getting out of refining as quickly as possible on a global scale and investing more in oil exploration and production.
That suggests that the money to be made in the near future is in oil, not refining.
There might be money to be made in refining companies over the next 3 months but after that I doubt it. But then again, I don't freaking know for sure.
It's just a guess, a hunch, a feeling and it's worth everything ya paid for it
