[jyl]

Step back at bit.

There are 80 different tablet models set to launch this year.

Can't even justify launching w/o selling at least 0.5-1.0MM units/model, so industry could build 40MM+ non-iPad tablets. Yet most forecasts are for around 20MM non-iPad tablet unit sales in 2011.

So in 2H there is going to be a brutal shakeout for tablet makers, 60+ models will bite the dust, they will be flooding Overstock.com and other liquidation channels. Most of these will be fine in hardware spec (dual-core ARM, etc). If you like hacking cheap Android tablets, it will be fun.

Fact is, all the tablets in 2011 are pretty similar in spec and form factor. 10" capacitive touchscreen, dual-core ARM-based CPU, third-party graphics engine, 1GB mDRAM, 64-128GB NAND, WLAN, Bluetooth, GPS, a camera or two, a couple buttons. Differentiation on paper will be minor - 3G, HDMI, SD, minor stuff.

Yet there will be 1.5X more tablet units made, and 4-8X more tablet models introduced, versus what the market will bear.

How to differentiate a tablet? Apple has that licked, has iOS, biggest app store by 100X, the "Apple" brand, VZ/T/China Unicom/all the big carriers, etc. Maybe MOT (now MMI) can differentiate w/ Xoom and the dockable one, maybe RIMM with Playbook (though differentiation of Blackberry O/S and hardly any apps may not be in a good way), maybe HPQ with webOS (ditto). Possibly the PC-based tablets will differentiate positively with Atom and Win 7 (it'll be a niche, but one with less frenzied competition). The Chinese will try to differentiate on price, but Apple is being aggressive on price/value and they are buying components and NAND in far greater scale than anyone else, so even if you use a cheap Chinese ARM SOC the BOM price isn't going to be way under Apple's. Between Acer, Asus, HTC, Samsung, etc - there's going to be some big losers. Among the third-tier brands - most of which we'll never hear about, or only see at liquidation sales like the Viewsonic one people were mentioning - almost all are going to be losers.

Maybe in 2012 we'll see some interesting/differentiated hardware. For now, the parts list is not a good guide to picking a winner.

Myself - we have an iPad, I like it a lot, I see lots of non-traditional uses - but to be honest for most of my usage I like the notebook form factor with an actual keyboard more. This post was trivial to bang out on a keyboard. On a tablet, with touchscreen keyboard and the screen half obscured at the wrong angle - not so effortless.