[jyl]

iPad had something like 90% of the tablet market in 2010.

My guess is that in 2 years, Android has equal units share to iOS in tablets, >40% each, leaving <20% for MSFT, RIMM, HPQ/WebOS, etc. That's about how long it took Android to overtake iOS in smartphones.

Various factors that could make Android's rise in tablets faster/slower, so figure they net out. The +/- factors include
- Unfettered distribution, tablets are not tied to carriers
- Android more mature now than when iPhone came out - code, brand, apps
- Apple's A4/5 chips lagging the 2/4 core ARM CPUs from NVDA and others
- Apple has secured supply of NAND and other components
- No huge leap in tablet features on the immediate horizon (as far as my imagination goes, if Jobs has something big up his sleeve, then I'm wrong)

I think Apple will continue to make the lion's share of profit in tablets incl the app store and mobile advertising. I think GOOG will be #2. The hardware companies making the Android tablets and components will, I think, come in a distant third.