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MRM MRM is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Palm Beach, Florida, USA
Posts: 7,713
The other real issue with this graph is that it's a version of the "Oh boy" curve. That's where the graph makes something look worse than it is because the perspective is skewed by the way the data is presented.

When the DOW is 10,000 and it moves 1,000 points, it moves only 10%. In the 50s when it was 1,000, 10% was 100 points. So the increase between 1980 and 2000 is magnified compared to the same percentage changes earlier that involved smaller absolute numbers.

The market did increase by a factor of 10 between 1980 and 2000, but increased by a factor of 10 between 1945 and 1965 too. In real terms it sank perhaps 25% between 1965 and 1980, so the run up after 1980 was partial inflationary, partially catch up, and partially an increase on a larger base, which makes the swing look magnified on a chart like this.

The economy is probably a hundred times bigger now than in the 60s, access to the markets is many times what it was. The trend chart does not predict disaster.
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Last edited by MRM; 10-12-2011 at 02:44 PM..
Old 10-12-2011, 02:41 PM
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