[kaisen]

Originally Posted by Rusty Heap

Eric, as you have demonstrated an in-depth and informative automotive knowledge base, (which I have sincerely enjoyed) from your previous posts perhaps you can expand on what "you" see as the future of automotive power plants for the common person in the USA.

I just found that "death of the V8" article interesting, is all with the new CAFE standards in our near future.

Eric please do expand on your future visions.

It's a balance between technology and infrastructure, and the money it takes to implement it.

The technology paths are fairly well understood. They're not mature, it's a puzzle. One advancement depends on the development of another. This is particularly true of alternative fuels.

It's one thing to ask consumers to pay more for a more technologically advanced car. It's another to ask companies or governments to invest in the infrastructure to support them.

For example, if diesel engines were more widely adopted in the US, it would likely mean that refineries would be built to produce more diesel. Otherwise the supply would be constant and the demand would rise, raising the cost of diesel.

For example, if electric/battery power were more widely adopted in the US, it would likely mean that charging stations would need to be added, and the existing electrical grid would be strained. Would new electric plants be needed? Would they be coal? Natural gas? Hydro? Nuclear?

For example, if LP/CNG power were more widely adopted in the US, it would likely mean that compressors and stations would need to be added, and the price of LP or natural gas may rise. We may also see those fuels taxed like gasoline to pay for roads and other expenses that gasoline taxes now cover. So it may seem cheap now, but it would get more expensive.

And there are other technologies, like hydrogen fuel cells, that depend on infrastructure and even safety regulations to develop along with them.

However, gasoline will be the norm for decades to come.

We'll see more efficient engines, both in terms of power density (hp/L) and emissions (ppm of hydrocarbons/CO). Most rely on more expensive/complex technologies like forced induction (turbochargers and superchargers) or more precise timing events like variable valve timing, several spark (laser) or fuel events per cycle (high-perssure direct injection).

We'll see more efficient transmissions/drivetrains. 8 speed automatic transmissions will be the norm. Much beyond that is thought to be a diminishing return. Many manufacturers are looking to Continuously Variable Transmissions (CVT), with Nissan leading the pack and Honda about to unveil a whole slew of them. We will see more automated manuals, like PDK, that don't have torque converter losses.

We'll see more efficient designs. Aerodynamics, packaging, rolling resistance (tires, bearings, CVs, torque converters). All will reduce the amount of power it takes to roll down the road.

We'll see lightweight materials. I think this will be number one. It will be the trickiest component as cost and safety will be tough. Moving to aluminums and other alloys vs steels, aramid composites (like carbon fiber), bonded structures (adhesives rather than welds/rivets/fasteners), ceramics and ceramic composites/aramids, and advanced plastics instead of glass. All of this adds lots and lots of money to the production costs of a car, at least right now. Like anything else, the costs come down as we adopt them on a broader scale, and costs come down as we develop better tehniques to implement them.

SOOOOOO......

We'll have to get used to the idea that smaller vehicles don't equate to cheaper vehicles. The idea of a "small" (Class A/B) car can't be as comfortable, powerful (lb/hp), or luxurious has to change....Americans think size matters. We're used to big cars and SUVs and it will be a tough transition. Ever been to Europe and see some of their 7 passenger vehicles? They would fit in the back of our 7 passenger full-size SUVs that we seem to think we need. I think it will be a tough transition. It's already started.

We'll have to change our perspective of adequate power (lb/hp). As McLovin pointed out in a different thread, (paraphrased) "A 200 hp 3400 lb sports car was a great driver's car in 1983. Why isn't it in 2013?" 500hp factory cars now roam the streets. A "normal" D-class sedan does 0-60mph in under 6 seconds (Altima V6, Sonata Turbo, Fusion EcoBoost, etc).... almost as fast as a 930 or 951 back in the day. 7-8 seconds in now considered too slow, even dangerous. We'll have to change that perspective, at least for daily driver type cars/trucks.

We'll have to change our perspective of comfort and NVH. Cars are heavy with sound deadening materials. Cars are heavy with large tires. Thicker, quieter glass. We read automotive reviews that focus on "soft-touch" materials and they get upset when the underside of the dash is a hard plastic material. All of this adds weight. We'll have to change that perspective.

Cars will continue to have all of the safety items we've mandated. Twenty years ago, we didn't have airbags (now we have ten!), ABS, traction control, stability controls, tire pressure monitors, pedestrian safety laws, or even widespread reporting of crash testing (and the crash testing wasn't nearly as tough). We're not going to go backwards. All of the weight and complexity added by those systems and regulations will continue to be constraints.

We're also used to all of the fancy doo-dads we've added. There aren't too many mainstream, high-volume cars that don't have power windows, power locks, power mirrors, power seat, remote entry, cruise control, fancy multi-media infotainment systems....all add weight. I don't think we'll give them up.

So is the V8 a dead-man-walking??

Maybe. GM seems to be committed to developing the pushrod small block. It's small/compact, powerful, and simple. They are adding multi-event direct injection next year. The already have variable valve timing. Ironically, a dressed 6.2L small block V8 (which is already all-aluminum) weighs LESS than most 2.0L intercooled turbo four cylinders. With better control over spark/fuel/valve timing, coupled with cylinder deactivation, and stop/start tech, it can be programmed to use very little fuel at "cruise" and add lots of power when needed. Since it is simpler, it is cheaper to manufacture. I've got it on good authority that the next-gen Corvette C7 will have a naturally aspirated 5.5L pushrod DI V8 making 450 hp yet turning 30+ mpg EPA freeway.

I know everyone will point to Cadillac's 4-6-8 debacle of the early eighties (I'll remind you that was 30 years ago) but with mulit-event high-pressure direct-injection, variable valve lift/timing, and multi-event spark it IS possible to run a V8 as a very lean 4 and seamlessly transition back to 6 and 8 cylinder power. Of course that same technology could be implemented in a 6 cylinder or even a 4 cylinder, and likely will. Same with the start/stop that kills the engine at stops. Why not?

I think you'll see more hybrid tech as well. Ferrari is committed to treating electric assist as a power-adder like a supercharger or turbocharger. 400hp engine plus selective 200 hp electric motor acts like a 600 hp engine, but with the added bonus of instant torque....and regen under braking. Does it add weight? Sure. But so would a supercharger or turbocharger. Would you be okay with a hybrid if it were marketed that way? How about a pickup with electric "boost" when loads dictate?

I think you'll see electric motors integrated into wheels and flywheels. All wheel drive can be de-coupled from the gas drivetrain, on-demand or as-needed. Both for traction, power-adding (boost), and handling (push/pull through a corner). Start/stop tech requires a more powerful instant starter. By adding the brush/stator to the flywheel "ring" you've got the leverage to spin and start a motor instantly, and it can also be used to generate (capture) under backload....and boost as needed under load. And it's much more simple, mechanically, than adding a conventional elctric motor to the drivetrain in some parallel way. It'll happen.

All of this costs money. One way or another, you'll end up paying for it. If the technologies are pushed by regulation (CAFE) then you'll have little choice. Or perhaps gasoline just starts getting so expensive that you'll demand it. Either way the costs may or may not be offset by fuel savings. But either way, we'd better be advancing those technologies. They're coming.