Interesting forecast by IEA.
If the first bolded part below is true, it will have been accomplished fully within the existing framework of US environmental regulations and without resort to "Drill Baby Drill"-style gutting of said regulations.
If the second bolded part is true, US consumers who crave lower oil prices will be even more frustrated than they are today, as the USA achieves the long-dreamed of "energy independence" and yet oil and gasoline prices are as volatile as ever.
Note this IEA forecast is being disputed by pretty thoughtful people, and IEA hasn't been infallible in its past forecasting. Shale oil wells don't last long, production drops very rapidly, so new wells must be drilled at a rapid pace.
IEA World Oil Outlook - Executive Summary
http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/English.pdf
The recent rebound in US oil and gas production, driven by upstream technologies that are unlocking light tight oil and shale gas resources, is spurring economic activity – with less expensive gas and electricity prices giving industry a competitive edge – and steadily changing the role of North America in global energy trade. By around 2020, the United States is projected to become the largest global oil producer (overtaking Saudi Arabia until the mid-2020s) and starts to see the impact of new fuel-efficiency measures in transport. The result is a continued fall in US oil imports, to the extent that North America becomes a net oil exporter around 2030. This accelerates the switch in direction of international oil trade towards Asia, putting a focus on the security of the strategic routes that bring Middle East oil to Asian markets. The United States, which currently imports around 20% of its total energy needs, becomes all but self-sufficient in net terms – a dramatic reversal of the trend seen in most other energy- importing countries.
No country is an energy “island” and the interactions between different fuels, markets and prices are intensifying. Most oil consumers are used to the effects of worldwide fluctuations in price (reducing its oil imports will not insulate the United States from developments in international markets), but consumers can expect to see growing linkages in other areas. A current example is how low-priced natural gas is reducing coal use in the United States, freeing up coal for export to Europe (where, in turn, it has displaced higher- priced gas). At its lowest level in 2012, natural gas in the United States traded at around one-fifth of import prices in Europe and one-eighth of those in Japan. Going forward, price relationships between regional gas markets are set to strengthen as liquefied natural gas trade becomes more flexible and contract terms evolve, meaning that changes in one part of the world are more quickly felt elsewhere.